Friday, August 28, 2009
Rauch too!
This is a solid trade especially because it lands the Twins a reliever who can help them out next year. Rauch has been solid - not great - but solid is what this team needs now and in the future. If the Twins are going to actually be a factor, then they need to have a strong bullpen and cannot have a surplus of average to below average pitchers in their bullpen. Finally, it's taken more than an entire year, but Bill Smith actually acquired a bullpen arm that the Twins can use in late innings to help out Guerrier and Mijares.
Bill Smith ... Mahay
It seems like the work Bill Smith has done (is currently doing) could be too little, too late. He knew that the bullpen needed help at the trading deadline last summer and he has done nothing to help/bolster/upgrade yet. Well that is until now - hopefully. It's hard to believe that it takes over 1 year to find one half-way decent reliever to help out a bullpen desperate for help (and while Mahay has been decent in the past, he is not a huge upgrade).
Also, while you could say that the Twins have been unlucky with their starting staff, it would not have been bad thing to add one veteran starter to the rotation this spring as some people said he should do. But instead of going out and adding depth like say Ken Williams of the White Sox has done, Bill Smith just sits on his hands and makes decisions that other people tell him to make (remember he said he is not an evaluator, but he is an organizer and decision maker).
The main issue, is that Bill Smith has waited until August to make moves that would have helped this club since the start of the season. Imagine if this team had a veteran starter to help the younger starters or if the team had one reliable starter not named Nathan, Guerrier, or Mijares. They would most likely be at least a few games better, if not in first place. Boy, it sure would look nice to have Brandon Lyon available in the bullpen to pitch the 7th or to give Guerrier a night off. He is the one guy I had hoped the Twins pursue hard last offseason and instead they signed Punto for $4 million and signed Luis Ayala - did anyone really think he would be any good after the poor season he had in the NL last year? I guess Bill Smith's advisors probably did and I guess that's who Bill Smith will blame.
It's time to get a real GM - one who actually can evaluate talent!
Also, while you could say that the Twins have been unlucky with their starting staff, it would not have been bad thing to add one veteran starter to the rotation this spring as some people said he should do. But instead of going out and adding depth like say Ken Williams of the White Sox has done, Bill Smith just sits on his hands and makes decisions that other people tell him to make (remember he said he is not an evaluator, but he is an organizer and decision maker).
The main issue, is that Bill Smith has waited until August to make moves that would have helped this club since the start of the season. Imagine if this team had a veteran starter to help the younger starters or if the team had one reliable starter not named Nathan, Guerrier, or Mijares. They would most likely be at least a few games better, if not in first place. Boy, it sure would look nice to have Brandon Lyon available in the bullpen to pitch the 7th or to give Guerrier a night off. He is the one guy I had hoped the Twins pursue hard last offseason and instead they signed Punto for $4 million and signed Luis Ayala - did anyone really think he would be any good after the poor season he had in the NL last year? I guess Bill Smith's advisors probably did and I guess that's who Bill Smith will blame.
It's time to get a real GM - one who actually can evaluate talent!
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Garland?
Jon Garland has cleared waivers and he would actually fit well into the Twins rotation. The Twins desperately need a veteran pitcher who can be a leader for some of the younger pitchers on the staff. Garland if traded would make $10 million next year, which seems like a lot (and it is), but the Twins have spent less in the last couple years than they did when they had both Hunter and Santana and they should have extra money with the opening of the new stadium.
Garland has been very consistent this year after struggling during the first third of the season. It was the first time he had pitched in the National League and it takes some players a little time to adjust. In his last 13 starts Garland's ERA is under 3 and he has failed to pitch at least 6 innings only 4 times this year! Putting that into perspective, the only Twins starter to pitch more than 4 innings in the last 6 games is Scott Baker. Garland has given up 3 ER or less in 17 or his 24 starts so far, which is very solid.
Sure Garland may not be a front of the line starter, but he has been awfully consistent this year. He would fit in nicely behind Baker and Slowey and maybe even behind Blackburn and be the 4th starter. $10 million is a lot to pay a 4th starter, but with consistent run support, and a season like he is having in Arizona, he would probably win about 15-16 games next year. He has not gotten a win in 6 games in which he has given up 2 or fewer runs. If he were to win just 4 of those games he would be around 10 - 8 this year. He also did not get a win in 5 quality starts in which he only gave up 3 runs. Factor that into the equation and he would probably be around 13-6 or 13-7 if he were in a Twins uniform because the Twins are around 42 - 7 when they give up less than 4 runs in a game this year.
If the Twins offense is close to the same next year as it is this year, I would love to have Garland on the pitching staff. Sure Mauer probably won't have the same numbers, but it would be a pretty safe bet that the middle infielders, Delmon Young, and Carlos Gomez will produce at a higher rate next year. With that said, if Garland do next year what he is doing this year (and it seems like that would not be too much to ask), then it would be fair to say that he could win between 14-16 games for the Twins and be an anchor in this staff.
Garland has been very consistent this year after struggling during the first third of the season. It was the first time he had pitched in the National League and it takes some players a little time to adjust. In his last 13 starts Garland's ERA is under 3 and he has failed to pitch at least 6 innings only 4 times this year! Putting that into perspective, the only Twins starter to pitch more than 4 innings in the last 6 games is Scott Baker. Garland has given up 3 ER or less in 17 or his 24 starts so far, which is very solid.
Sure Garland may not be a front of the line starter, but he has been awfully consistent this year. He would fit in nicely behind Baker and Slowey and maybe even behind Blackburn and be the 4th starter. $10 million is a lot to pay a 4th starter, but with consistent run support, and a season like he is having in Arizona, he would probably win about 15-16 games next year. He has not gotten a win in 6 games in which he has given up 2 or fewer runs. If he were to win just 4 of those games he would be around 10 - 8 this year. He also did not get a win in 5 quality starts in which he only gave up 3 runs. Factor that into the equation and he would probably be around 13-6 or 13-7 if he were in a Twins uniform because the Twins are around 42 - 7 when they give up less than 4 runs in a game this year.
If the Twins offense is close to the same next year as it is this year, I would love to have Garland on the pitching staff. Sure Mauer probably won't have the same numbers, but it would be a pretty safe bet that the middle infielders, Delmon Young, and Carlos Gomez will produce at a higher rate next year. With that said, if Garland do next year what he is doing this year (and it seems like that would not be too much to ask), then it would be fair to say that he could win between 14-16 games for the Twins and be an anchor in this staff.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Delmon Young ... Cuddyer for Vasquez?
How about the month Delmon Young is having so far? He has more HRs so far this month than he had the entire previous 4 months. Sure it's only 4 HR, but there are almost two more weeks left this month. Young has said that this is the best he has seen the ball since he was in AA. That is a good thing for the Twins as Young hit .336 with 20 HRs in 84 games when he was in AA. We all have known that Young has the talent and it's all dependent on how comfortable he can get and right now he looks better than ever since he joined the Twins. With that said, I would be all for trading Cuddyer this offseason for a quality arm. Sure Cuddyer has been solid this year, but if Young gets 500+ at bats, he should hit around .300 with around 20 HRs. Granted his OBP will be lower than Cuddyer's, but I'll take the higher average with risp that Young offers (.323 avg with 2 outs and runners in scoring position) compared to Cuddyer's (.145 avg with 2 outs and runners in scoring position). If Cuddyer is traded, it would allow Young to move back to his natural RF position and allow Span to play LF with Gomez in CF and Kubel being the 4th OF and obviously the DH. For those of you who have not played LF and RF (we're talking baseball and not softball here), there is a big difference. The ball tails different and comes off the bat different in RF compared to LF.
Now last year, there was a lot of people who wanted to see Cuddyer traded, but he really did not have a lot of value. With the year Cuddyer is having, he would draw significant trade interest. He is putting up similar numbers to Alex Rios and signed for significantly less. Also, Cuddyer has just one more year on his contract, so a team that has some talent coming through the minors, but wants a very solid player to be a stop gap could use Cuddyer - see Atlanta Braves. The Braves have been linked to having interest in Cuddyer in the past and the Braves have some pieces the Twins would want. Yunel Escobar would fit in nicely here, but I think the Twins would need to give up more than Cuddyer to get him. I think the player that would fit perfect in a deal for Cuddyer would be Javier Vasquez. Vasquez, like Cuddyer, has one more year on his current deal and the Braves deep with pitching similar to the way the Twins were deep in pitching when they traded away Matt Garza. The Braves have an option to keep Tim Hudson next year who could fill in for Vasquez's spot or they could go with minor leaguers Kris Medlin (5-0 1.19 ERA at AAA) or Charlie Morton (7-2 2.26 ERA at AAA).
Vasquez would give the Twins a reliable starting pitcher to go with Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn. I would like to see the Twins sign a free agent pitcher to give them more options as well, but it looks unlikely they would attempt to sign someone like John Lackey, Jason Marquis, or even Randy Wolf. It would be nice to see the Twins having these options available as long relievers or guys to fill in for injury situations: Perkins/Swarzak/Duensing. You could add Liriano to that group if they keep him for next year, but like I posted in a previous post, I think the Twins should aggressively shop Liriano for JJ Hardy.
Now last year, there was a lot of people who wanted to see Cuddyer traded, but he really did not have a lot of value. With the year Cuddyer is having, he would draw significant trade interest. He is putting up similar numbers to Alex Rios and signed for significantly less. Also, Cuddyer has just one more year on his contract, so a team that has some talent coming through the minors, but wants a very solid player to be a stop gap could use Cuddyer - see Atlanta Braves. The Braves have been linked to having interest in Cuddyer in the past and the Braves have some pieces the Twins would want. Yunel Escobar would fit in nicely here, but I think the Twins would need to give up more than Cuddyer to get him. I think the player that would fit perfect in a deal for Cuddyer would be Javier Vasquez. Vasquez, like Cuddyer, has one more year on his current deal and the Braves deep with pitching similar to the way the Twins were deep in pitching when they traded away Matt Garza. The Braves have an option to keep Tim Hudson next year who could fill in for Vasquez's spot or they could go with minor leaguers Kris Medlin (5-0 1.19 ERA at AAA) or Charlie Morton (7-2 2.26 ERA at AAA).
Vasquez would give the Twins a reliable starting pitcher to go with Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn. I would like to see the Twins sign a free agent pitcher to give them more options as well, but it looks unlikely they would attempt to sign someone like John Lackey, Jason Marquis, or even Randy Wolf. It would be nice to see the Twins having these options available as long relievers or guys to fill in for injury situations: Perkins/Swarzak/Duensing. You could add Liriano to that group if they keep him for next year, but like I posted in a previous post, I think the Twins should aggressively shop Liriano for JJ Hardy.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Liriano, Anderson, Humber ... Twins 40 man roster
So Liriano is the latest Twins pitcher to go on the DL with seemingly nothing physically wrong, but just in need of a mental break. Now it seems like Liriano has more fire than Perkins (who seemingly is trying to find any excuse to explain why he has pitched poorly), but this seems like it's getting to be a big problem for the Twins. I know Anderson has done well with some of his "projects" (see LaTroy Hawkins, Dennys Reyes, etc.), but lately it seems like he has not been able to get the most out of his staff. Physically, most of the Twins staff has enough stuff to be successful and being such a young staff, the thing they need help with is the mental side of pitching and the grind of 162 game schedule. Sure Anderson can help the pitchers make adjustments to the mechanics, but his staff needs help with the mental side of pitching.
With a roster spot open, the Twins called up Humber - a pitcher the Twins gave an opportunity to earlier this year - granted it wasn't much of an opportunity (4.1 IP) but he was not successful (6 ER). This is how bad the overall pitching staff has been; they need to bring up a pitcher from AAA who had an ERA over 5! With that said, hopefully Humber can show something and become at least an effective long reliever.
With Humber joining the 40, that means that he will be bumping someone off the roster. I am guessing by the time I am finished with this post, that the person who is taken off the 40 man roster will be announced. The bigger picture here is that there are quite a few players who will be added to the 40 man roster, meaning that many players will have to be removed. The following players will most likely be added to the 40 man roster by the time next year begins (if not sooner): Rob Delaney, Anthony Slama, Danny Valencia, Juan Morillo, and Matt Fox. It will be interesting to see if some of the faster moving pitchers (Gutierrez, Bullock, Tootle) will also be added or if they will be added during the 2010 season if they are needed - it will depend on how their fall/winter seasons go, as well as how they do in spring training. With the five players listed above probably being added to the 40 man roster, it will be interesting to see who the Twins take off. Here are my predictions of who those players will replace (for the start of the 2010 season): RA Dickey, Brian Buscher, Matt Macri, Jason Pridie. These players will be off the 40 man roster as they are free agents: Carl Pavano, Mike Redmond, Orlando Cabrera, and Joe Crede. That is 8 players I predict that will be off the 40 man roster with the 5 players that will be added from the minors. That leaves 3 more spots for either free agents or other minor leaguers (David Winfree, Erik Lis, Rene Tosoni, Alex Burnett, and maybe even Ben Revere or Chris Parmalee).
With a roster spot open, the Twins called up Humber - a pitcher the Twins gave an opportunity to earlier this year - granted it wasn't much of an opportunity (4.1 IP) but he was not successful (6 ER). This is how bad the overall pitching staff has been; they need to bring up a pitcher from AAA who had an ERA over 5! With that said, hopefully Humber can show something and become at least an effective long reliever.
With Humber joining the 40, that means that he will be bumping someone off the roster. I am guessing by the time I am finished with this post, that the person who is taken off the 40 man roster will be announced. The bigger picture here is that there are quite a few players who will be added to the 40 man roster, meaning that many players will have to be removed. The following players will most likely be added to the 40 man roster by the time next year begins (if not sooner): Rob Delaney, Anthony Slama, Danny Valencia, Juan Morillo, and Matt Fox. It will be interesting to see if some of the faster moving pitchers (Gutierrez, Bullock, Tootle) will also be added or if they will be added during the 2010 season if they are needed - it will depend on how their fall/winter seasons go, as well as how they do in spring training. With the five players listed above probably being added to the 40 man roster, it will be interesting to see who the Twins take off. Here are my predictions of who those players will replace (for the start of the 2010 season): RA Dickey, Brian Buscher, Matt Macri, Jason Pridie. These players will be off the 40 man roster as they are free agents: Carl Pavano, Mike Redmond, Orlando Cabrera, and Joe Crede. That is 8 players I predict that will be off the 40 man roster with the 5 players that will be added from the minors. That leaves 3 more spots for either free agents or other minor leaguers (David Winfree, Erik Lis, Rene Tosoni, Alex Burnett, and maybe even Ben Revere or Chris Parmalee).
Monday, August 17, 2009
Twins sign Gibson!
The Twins have signed first round draft pick Kyle Gibson. This is a very good sign as he was widely viewed as a top ten talent and dropped due to a stress fracture to his arm (not his elbow or shoulder). If the Twins would have failed to sign Gibson, the Twins front office would have been ripped apart by the media because of their resistance to sign a Type A free agent because they refused to give up their first round draft pick. Hopefully he turns out to be similar to the two players he has been compared to - John Lackey and Justin Verlander.
Liriano for Hardy!
I realize that Bill Smith may be a little trigger shy after he traded away a very promising young arm (Garza) for a promising young power hitter (Young) - remember at the time, Harris for Bartlett was considered a wash and it was basically a Garza for Young deal with other minor leaguers involved as well - but Liriano needs a change of scenery. He'll have a great start (like his last one (7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K, 3 H), and then have a start where he throws 100 pitches in 4 or 5 innings and give up around 5 runs. He seems like he is in the same boat as Garza, where the coaching staff just gets frusterated start after start with him.
Why the Brewers would do it
The Brewers have Alcides Escobar who was already tabbed as the shortstop of the future last offseason and the Brewers were trying to decide whether to trade Hardy or move him to third, before deciding to keep Escobar in the minors. With Hardy struggling at the plate this year (but still excelling in the field - UZR around 8), the Brewers decided the future is now and replaced Hardy with Escobar. This move actually kills any leverage that the Brewers had when they are involved with trade discussions around Hardy as they have him in AAA instead of moving him to third base. It shows that they do not value him as high, and now may not get much in return. The Brewers are desperate for pitching (probably more desperate than the Twins) and would love to attempt to try and resurrect Liriano's career.
Why the Twins would do it
The Nick Punto love affair has got to end. Punto was even quoted in the Pioneer Press as saying "You're only as good as your weakest link ... and I'm just not playing good enough right now." If the Twins acquired Hardy, they would have a legit shortstop who can actually "pick-it" (see UZR of around 8 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3797&position=SS#fielding and was 3rd in +/- rating in 2008) who also has some offensive value (hit .283 with 24 HRs in 2008). Also, with a rookie 3B - Danny Valencia - that you do not know what kind of production you would get, it would be nice to have a shortstop who has spent a couple years in the majors and has had a history of decent production. I did also hear on the radio that Hardy and Mauer are good friends, not sure how true that is, but if they were it would definitely help out the contract negotiations.
Why the Brewers would not do it
If Escobar struggles the rest of this year and/or the Brewers do not find a decent candidate for third base, then Hardy could take over either of those spots if he can regain some of his old offensive form. If Hardy stays in the minors a couple more weeks, then he will not be eligible to become a free agent until after the 2011 season, which would give the Brewers at the least a very solid bench option.
Why the Twins would not do it
Like I wrote in the opening of this post, Bill Smith might be trigger shy after his past moves - especially after dealing a pitcher for a power hitter. If Liriano regains his form during the last 2 months, then the Twins would probably be forced to keep Liriano based on the way the rest of the pitching staff has been this summer. Looking at the season as a whole however, it seems like that is a long shot. If Liriano continues to be inconsistent, the coaching staff may not stay patient and a trade could happen this offseason.
Why the Brewers would do it
The Brewers have Alcides Escobar who was already tabbed as the shortstop of the future last offseason and the Brewers were trying to decide whether to trade Hardy or move him to third, before deciding to keep Escobar in the minors. With Hardy struggling at the plate this year (but still excelling in the field - UZR around 8), the Brewers decided the future is now and replaced Hardy with Escobar. This move actually kills any leverage that the Brewers had when they are involved with trade discussions around Hardy as they have him in AAA instead of moving him to third base. It shows that they do not value him as high, and now may not get much in return. The Brewers are desperate for pitching (probably more desperate than the Twins) and would love to attempt to try and resurrect Liriano's career.
Why the Twins would do it
The Nick Punto love affair has got to end. Punto was even quoted in the Pioneer Press as saying "You're only as good as your weakest link ... and I'm just not playing good enough right now." If the Twins acquired Hardy, they would have a legit shortstop who can actually "pick-it" (see UZR of around 8 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3797&position=SS#fielding and was 3rd in +/- rating in 2008) who also has some offensive value (hit .283 with 24 HRs in 2008). Also, with a rookie 3B - Danny Valencia - that you do not know what kind of production you would get, it would be nice to have a shortstop who has spent a couple years in the majors and has had a history of decent production. I did also hear on the radio that Hardy and Mauer are good friends, not sure how true that is, but if they were it would definitely help out the contract negotiations.
Why the Brewers would not do it
If Escobar struggles the rest of this year and/or the Brewers do not find a decent candidate for third base, then Hardy could take over either of those spots if he can regain some of his old offensive form. If Hardy stays in the minors a couple more weeks, then he will not be eligible to become a free agent until after the 2011 season, which would give the Brewers at the least a very solid bench option.
Why the Twins would not do it
Like I wrote in the opening of this post, Bill Smith might be trigger shy after his past moves - especially after dealing a pitcher for a power hitter. If Liriano regains his form during the last 2 months, then the Twins would probably be forced to keep Liriano based on the way the rest of the pitching staff has been this summer. Looking at the season as a whole however, it seems like that is a long shot. If Liriano continues to be inconsistent, the coaching staff may not stay patient and a trade could happen this offseason.
Day Games vs. Night Games
One thing that I think is being looked over is the way Gardy divides playing time. If you look at the team's record on day games compared to night games you will see a big difference. The team is 41-34 in night games compared to 15-27 in day games. If the Twins were just .500 on day games (21-21), they would be tied for first in the division. Yesterday's game was the first time in a long time that the Twins actually fielded a respectable lineup for a day game. Throughout the first half of the season, Gardy continued to trot out a lineup with a combination of these players for day games: Buscher/Redmond/Punto/Gomez/Casilla/Tolbert. Those players have a combined average of .213. For whatever reason, Gardy will not DH Mauer on a night game and have Redmond catch the night game or have Crede sit the night game before the day game. The most obvious situation was a couple weeks back when the Twins faced two left-handed starters in the first two games (night games) in a Cleveland series and then faced Fausto Carmona in the third game (day game). All Gardy would have needed to do is have Mauer DH against the left-hander on the night game and have Redmond catch so that he can face a LHP (which he is hitting .405 against). Sure if the top of the lineup does their job, then the Twins do not need to worry about the bottom. As a player, it is difficult to hit when the bottom 4 or 5 hitters are continuously getting out, and 4 or 5 players need to do all the producing.
For those of you who say what about the pitching staff on day games? Well, obviously Blackburn was awful yesterday, but if you look at his last day game start he went 6.1 IP and gave up 2 R. The rotation has an ERA better on day games (4.67) compared to night games (4.71). It's basically the same on day vs. night games and the biggest difference is the team batting average. The team average on day games is .255 compared to .280 average during night games. It seems pretty cut and dry that the offense is pretty bad on day games due to Gardy putting his "B" team out there and hoping they product. I think that if he would have mixed in guys like Buscher and Redmond during the week, then the offense would not have been so bad on day games. It would be a lot different if the team had Gomez and Punto hitting 8-9 on one night and then Redmond-Punto the next and then Buscher Gomez the next. Instead of having 4-5 automatic outs on the day games, the Twins would just have 1-2 (maybe 3 every once in a while) automatic outs a night. With that said, hopefully Bill Smith can actually do his job this coming offseason and give Gardy some options, so that there are only 1-2 automatic outs on the entire team and actually have a bench to use. All this team needed to do was go .500 on the day games and they would be in first place.
For those of you who say what about the pitching staff on day games? Well, obviously Blackburn was awful yesterday, but if you look at his last day game start he went 6.1 IP and gave up 2 R. The rotation has an ERA better on day games (4.67) compared to night games (4.71). It's basically the same on day vs. night games and the biggest difference is the team batting average. The team average on day games is .255 compared to .280 average during night games. It seems pretty cut and dry that the offense is pretty bad on day games due to Gardy putting his "B" team out there and hoping they product. I think that if he would have mixed in guys like Buscher and Redmond during the week, then the offense would not have been so bad on day games. It would be a lot different if the team had Gomez and Punto hitting 8-9 on one night and then Redmond-Punto the next and then Buscher Gomez the next. Instead of having 4-5 automatic outs on the day games, the Twins would just have 1-2 (maybe 3 every once in a while) automatic outs a night. With that said, hopefully Bill Smith can actually do his job this coming offseason and give Gardy some options, so that there are only 1-2 automatic outs on the entire team and actually have a bench to use. All this team needed to do was go .500 on the day games and they would be in first place.
Intro
Hey guys,
I consider myself a fairly smart baseball mind and I will be sharing my thoughts on the Twins via this blog. I have played baseball for over 20 years and am still playing and coaching amateur baseball. I have followed the Twins throughout the struggles of the mid-late 90s and have never jumped off the bandwagon. Feel free to comment on any of my posts and I will try to update the blog on a daily basis.
Matt
I consider myself a fairly smart baseball mind and I will be sharing my thoughts on the Twins via this blog. I have played baseball for over 20 years and am still playing and coaching amateur baseball. I have followed the Twins throughout the struggles of the mid-late 90s and have never jumped off the bandwagon. Feel free to comment on any of my posts and I will try to update the blog on a daily basis.
Matt
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