Monday, November 9, 2009

Hardy and other offseason predictions/suggestions

I still believe that the Twins need to get a veteran pitcher and I have been pushing hard for the Twins to go after Garland. The Twins had a ridiculous record when they held opponents under 4 runs (something like 42-7 through mid-August) and Garland gave up 3 or fewer earned runs in 23 of his starts this past season which would probably translate into 14-15 wins if you consider no decisions and the couple times the offense fails. I do like the other options (Pavano & Washburn) as well, but I think Garland would be my preference - see my August 20 post.

I think taking a chance on a Sheets/Bedard/Harden type would be a good risk as the Twins need to be able to match up with Verlander and Peavy. Especially since the Twins did not have to give up any pitching (Perkins or Liriano) for Hardy, they still have some depth in the rotation if one of those oft-injured free agents can't get healthy. I think that's the one part of the Hardy deal that people haven't really looked at - it seems like the Brewers really are in need of starting pitching and the Twins didn't have to give up any.

With the outfield now pretty much set, I would like to see the Twins sign Polanco even though it would mean that Gardo would put Punto at 3rd. Polanco would fit perfectly in the 2 hole in front of Mauer and the rest of the lineup would fall into place (Span, Polanco, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young, Hardy, Punto - Gardy might interchange Kubel & Cuddyer in the 5th/6th spot and Young & Hardy in the 7th/8th spot, but with one signing that makes the Twins lineup pretty deep and formidable - if Hardy hits 8th, he should have more pitches to hit as well as less pressure on him to perform than when he was in Milwaukee, not to mention the Twins really have no one ready in their system that should threaten his spot). I think if that's the route the Twins would go, then if Valencia was tearing up AAA (which might or might not happen), then he could step in at 3rd midway through the season - assuming that Punto is struggling offensively (which is hard to tell because it is an even year - Punto has proven to perform better during contract years.)

Another thing to look for is to see if Harris or Tolbert take extra fly balls. I think that Tolbert makes the most sense as he has the advantage in speed and athleticism, but I think Harris has a better arm. I do not see either having much difficulty converting to the outfield as many teams draft shortstops and convert them to the outfield - see BJ Upton, Justin Upton, Cuddyer. The main point behind my reasoning is that it would allow the Twins to use an extra roster spot for someone like a Mike Sweeney (a veteran bat to come off the bench) or an extra reliever. The Twins will have their starting 9 plus these two players as utility players giving them 11 position players and not needing an extra outfielder taking up space. If you add a Mike Sweeney or Kevin Millar type player that would leave room for 13 pitchers. Now I doubt the Twins want to go with 13 pitchers, but with the way the Twins baby their pitchers, they might need that extra guy out there, especially if they do not sign a veteran innings eating pitcher. Below is ideally how I would see their roster shaping up:

1. Span - CF
2. Polanco - 2B
3. Mauer - C
4. Morneau - 1B
5. Cuddyer - RF
6. Kubel - DH
7. Young - LF
8. Hardy - SS
9. Punto - 3B

Bench
IF - Harris
IF/OF - Tolbert
IF - Sweeney/Millar

Starting Pitching
1. Harden/Bedard/Sheets - if they are unable to sign one of these pitchers - then try for Garland/Washburn
2. Baker
3. Slowey
4. Blackburn
5. Duensing

Relief Pitching
CL: Nathan
RHSU: Guerrier
RHSU: Rausch
LHSU: Mijares
RHRP: Bonser/Neshek - I'm putting them down as one spot as I think the Twins will be lucky if either pitcher can be effective the first year after surgery (see Jesse Crain)
LRP: Liriano/Perkins
LOOGY: Liriano/Perkins - Liriano has better splits against lefties than Perkins

That is how I see the roster looking going into next season. Obviously there are many decisions that Bill Smith needs to make and I that I made that I did not like was non-tendering Jesse Crain. Crain performed very well in the second half of the season and would be a nice addition to the now surprisingly crowded bullpen, but he will probably be paid between $3-4 million which is a lot to pay seeing that they are already paying Nathan well over $10 million ($22.5 million over the next two years). I think, if it is possibly, that the Twins could tender Crain and possibly trade him for a mid level prospect, and the worst case scenario would be that they can't find a trade partner and end up with a solid reliever.

Just wanted to make sure I wrote this, but obviously the number one priority this offseason is to sign Mauer to an extension and then secondly to keep Wilson Ramos healthy (he just hurt his knee after getting off to a great start in the fall league) so that they can use him to trade for a missing piece either this offseason, during the season, or next offseason.