Thursday, August 20, 2009

Garland?

Jon Garland has cleared waivers and he would actually fit well into the Twins rotation. The Twins desperately need a veteran pitcher who can be a leader for some of the younger pitchers on the staff. Garland if traded would make $10 million next year, which seems like a lot (and it is), but the Twins have spent less in the last couple years than they did when they had both Hunter and Santana and they should have extra money with the opening of the new stadium.

Garland has been very consistent this year after struggling during the first third of the season. It was the first time he had pitched in the National League and it takes some players a little time to adjust. In his last 13 starts Garland's ERA is under 3 and he has failed to pitch at least 6 innings only 4 times this year! Putting that into perspective, the only Twins starter to pitch more than 4 innings in the last 6 games is Scott Baker. Garland has given up 3 ER or less in 17 or his 24 starts so far, which is very solid.

Sure Garland may not be a front of the line starter, but he has been awfully consistent this year. He would fit in nicely behind Baker and Slowey and maybe even behind Blackburn and be the 4th starter. $10 million is a lot to pay a 4th starter, but with consistent run support, and a season like he is having in Arizona, he would probably win about 15-16 games next year. He has not gotten a win in 6 games in which he has given up 2 or fewer runs. If he were to win just 4 of those games he would be around 10 - 8 this year. He also did not get a win in 5 quality starts in which he only gave up 3 runs. Factor that into the equation and he would probably be around 13-6 or 13-7 if he were in a Twins uniform because the Twins are around 42 - 7 when they give up less than 4 runs in a game this year.

If the Twins offense is close to the same next year as it is this year, I would love to have Garland on the pitching staff. Sure Mauer probably won't have the same numbers, but it would be a pretty safe bet that the middle infielders, Delmon Young, and Carlos Gomez will produce at a higher rate next year. With that said, if Garland do next year what he is doing this year (and it seems like that would not be too much to ask), then it would be fair to say that he could win between 14-16 games for the Twins and be an anchor in this staff.

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